Multilayer Feedforward Neural Network Model and Box-Jenkins Model for Seasonal Load Forecasting

Author & Affiliation:
Norizan Mohamed (norizan@umt.edu.my)
Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, University, Malaysia, Terengganu (UNT), 20130 Kula Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia Institution
Maizah Hura Ahmad
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi, Malaysia - 81310 UTm Skudai JOHAR (MALASIA)
Zuhaimy Ismail
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi, Malaysia - 81310 UTm Skudai JOHAR (MALASIA)
Khairil Anuar Arshad
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi, Malaysia - 81310 UTm Skudai JOHAR (MALASIA)
Keyword:
Load Forecasting, Deseasonalization, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Artificial Neural Networks, Multilayer Feed-forward Neural Network
Issue Date:
December 2008
Abstract:

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been extensively studied and have been used as time series forecasting method. When neural network is compared to seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, SARIMA model outperforms neural networks model when seasonality in a series exist. This paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of preprocessing data in neural networks model. In this study, the trend is absent and only seasonality exists, hence we only applied deseasonalization as preprocessing data. The forecasting performances among these three models, i.e., the SARIMA model, the neural network model with raw data and the neural network models with preprocessing data are compared. Comparing the performances using the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), we find that neural networks with preprocessing data are able to capture seasonality but SARIMA still outperforms both two neural network models.
 

Pages:
767-722
ISSN:
2319-8052 (Online) - 2231-3478 (Print)
Source:
DOI:
jusps-B
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Copy the following to cite this article:

N. Mohamed; M. H. Ahmad; Z. I. ; K. A. Arshad, "Multilayer Feedforward Neural Network Model and Box-Jenkins Model for Seasonal Load Forecasting ", Journal of Ultra Scientist of Physical Sciences, Volume 20, Issue 3, Page Number 767-722, 2018

Copy the following to cite this URL:

N. Mohamed; M. H. Ahmad; Z. I. ; K. A. Arshad, "Multilayer Feedforward Neural Network Model and Box-Jenkins Model for Seasonal Load Forecasting ", Journal of Ultra Scientist of Physical Sciences, Volume 20, Issue 3, Page Number 767-722, 2018

Available from: http://ultraphysicalsciences.org/paper/1403/

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